The Saudi Arabian Conundrum
Jack Pearce, Vice Chair of the Board of Directors
From one set of perspectives, it appears almost impossible to hold out hope for peaceful reform of the Saudi Arabian governance system in the foreseeable future.
The combination of royal and religious authority has held steady for over a century. The royal family’s control of oil revenues – the primary source of wealth for the country — massively bolsters its control of the commanding heights of the economy and society. Major oil consuming nations, including the United States, are extremely cautious about mortally offending the uncompromising royal family, or by any means creating instability in the largest oil producing country in the world. The royal family has demonstrated considerable skill, over time, in distributing some of the oil revenues to keep the populace apparently acquiescent in current governmental arrangements, and in being seen as a responsible steward of oil assets in international markets. The United States and its democratic allies apparently stand ready to protect the royal family and Saudi Arabia from outside intervention by force. And the royal family is planning for maintenance of its ‘ownership’ position with some confidence and skill.
From another set of perspectives however, substantial, peaceful, but measurable and verifiable reform of the governance system would be prudent for all the stakeholders in Saudi Arabia – including the royal family and the general populace – as well as those outside the country interested in its stability and reliability in the future. The monarchical form of government is an anachronism. There are many competing models in the world today. Its unchanged continuance runs against examples and against the odds. Other monarchies in the region are showing somewhat more flexibility in adapting to more modern mores – as to social life, economic organization, and even governance. This is likely to continue. Other lifestyles and social organization surround the country, and are penetrating the consciousness of its citizens steadily. A large portion of the population is young, (60 to 70% under 25 by some estimates) and will have vital economic interests to seek to serve, and other models of social organization to observe.
Women have reason to seek much greater economic opportunity, social recognition, and protection of their interests, and voice in the ordering of community affairs, and have models in other countries of success in seeking such improvements in women’s positions.
Economic opportunities for non-royals could be made more widely available, to the advantage of the country as a whole.
The path of peaceful change from monarchy to citizen enfranchisement has been trod before, so examples of how this can be done are available. Citizen enfranchisement, skillfully and successfully done, could ward off dangers of citizen unrest and disorderly, destructive change in forms which could sweep away, for unknown periods, both the privileges of the royal family and the social stability which many or most of the citizens in Saudi Arabia and others interested in the country would prefer to maintain.
The royal family sometimes speaks as if it recognizes some of these factors, and has on occasion offered announcements of intended change. But it has thus far not acted consistently and resolutely to bring substantial citizen empowerment at fundamental levels in the society. Given all this, objective observers may not be able to assure us that successful change resulting in substantial citizen enfranchisement and continuing economic development will occur. But there is a good case that if it does not, then the opportunities of the peoples of Saudi Arabia will be greatly hindered, and stability in social arrangements could falter or fail. If Saudi Arabia is rigid and brittle, it may very well break, perhaps shatter, from the ever-changing, not entirely predictable pressures of an evolving world.
For these reasons, we at the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Saudi Arabia call for greater vision by the royal family, greater awareness in the citizenry of the country, and a combination of unequivocal but peaceful pressure from those outside Saudi Arabia whose economic and religious interests are tied to a stable, peaceful, successful and tolerant society in Saudi Arabia.
We do not wish to limit constructive action to any single step or two we might advance. Many steps can and should be taken. We will address many of them over time. But two early concrete actions could be taken to advance the process of constructive change in Saudi Arabia and give hope to its citizens and those outside the country who wish it well. One would be nation wide free municipal elections where all citizens above the age of 18, male and female, vote in all municipalities across the country. The other would be taking concrete steps toward making the consultative council elected from the citizenry, and transferring substantial, verifiable legislative responsibilities to it. We would urge that all concerned with the future of this country bend every effort to bring about these actions.